Stable trend, keep going

2026-10-08 1534 views 2 posts

I keep a 28-day rolling average in a sheet that's now around 150 rows, plus columns for appetite on a 1–5 scale and hours slept. Since early March that average has stayed inside a 1.4-lb band — tighter, honestly, than it moved during any loss phase.

The sheet is excellent at telling me I'm stable. It's useless at telling me whether stable is a state I'm holding or a state that's holding me.

The mildly contrarian part: I don't think a log can answer the question everyone asks. It shows what happened. It can't show the counterfactual. Every time I try to model "what if I weren't doing this," I end up inventing the numbers I want and then citing them like evidence.

What's actually been informative: protein floor, whether I eat before 10am, and how many nights land under six hours of sleep. Those three move together in ways weight never does.

Anyone else reach the point where the data stopped being a decision tool and turned into a mirror?

Night shifter here. A 28-day average kills daily water noise, but it also lags.

I’d add a 7-day average and a weekly waist measurement. If 7-day and 28-day are both flat for 3–4 weeks, that’s a real maintenance/plateau stat.

If 7-day is drifting while 28-day sits, you’re just inside the lag. What’s the raw daily spread? If raw weight swings 3+ lb and the 28-day only moves 1.4, your sleep and appetite columns are probably doing more work than the scale.