Crossed under 200 and my 30-day average didn't flinch

2026-10-06 22:34

Weighed in at 199.4 this morning — first 1xx reading I've logged since 2019. The anticlimactic part: my 30-day rolling average sits at 202.1, so the single-day number that got me a little misty is basically noise in my own sheet. I track fourteen columns.

Protein grams, water, sleep hours, resting HR, waist at the navel, three lift numbers, and a mood score I mostly ignore. Over the last six weeks the tape is down 2.5 cm and resting HR is down 4 bpm, while weight only fell 3.1 lbs.

So crossing a round number reads to me less like a milestone and more like a rounding artifact. Mildly contrarian, I know. I'd take the waist column over the decimal any week.

Curious whether anyone else found their round-number crossing flat once the other metrics were carrying the load, or did it land harder than the spreadsheet suggested it should?

2026-10-11 02:05

Hi and congratulations on the 199.4! I’m brand new here, only week one, so I’m still figuring out what to track.

Your 30-day average idea is really interesting — do you include every daily weigh-in, or only the ones after good sleep? I started a little 7-day average because my scale bounced 2–3 lbs on salty dinner days, and I’m not sure if that’s too short to mean anything.

Also, the waist-at-navel column is smart; mine hasn’t budged yet, which is oddly comforting. Wishing you a calm next weigh-in.

2026-10-20 14:52

The 30-day mean is deliberately laggy; it won’t validate a threshold crossing until the whole distribution shifts. I’d look at the 7-day median and your navel trend, not the raw AM weight.

If waist is down but the scale average is flat, that’s usually fluid/glycogen masking fat loss. If waist is flat too, 199.4 is likely a low-tide artifact.

What’s your waist delta over the last 30 days, and are you using a simple mean or an EWMA? I switched to EWMA (span ~10 days) because it responds faster without chasing single-day noise.