NCT05931367 completed with 445, so where are results?

CT.gov results can lag a long time after completion. Small trials often never post them at all.

Yeah, but 445 isn't tiny. I'd expect something by now, even just a conference abstract.

I'd separate the CT.gov silence from the Phase 2/3 comparison. The 24.2% at 48 weeks is from Phase 2, and the up to 28.7% is company-reported and not peer-reviewed.

Different estimands and durations can make those look like a jump when they're not directly comparable. The completed knee OA trial with 445 is interesting because pain and function endpoints may tell a different story than weight. Still, no results posted means we're guessing.

The knee OA trial is the one I want. Pain and function endpoints matter more to me than weight alone.

Does CT.gov have a deadline for posting results? I thought it was within a year for some trials.

For applicable interventional trials, yes, there are posting requirements, but not every completed trial is covered. A completed status on CT.gov doesn't mean results will appear promptly. I've seen oncology trials lag for years.

With these small metabolic trials, abstracts or company updates often come first. That doesn't make the Phase 2 24.2% less solid, but it does mean the 28.7% number needs cautious reading until we see the full data.

I checked CT.gov again this morning, coffee in hand. Still nothing. That 445 trial is the one I keep refreshing. If it had a conference abstract, I’d probably frame it.

The posting rules have carve-outs. A completed status and a results deadline aren’t the same thing. I’ve seen entries sit blank for years. So the silence isn’t proof of anything except silence.

I’m with you on separating the numbers. 24.2% at 48 weeks and up to 28.7% may not even be answering the same question. I want the table, not the talking point.

Rainy afternoon here, so I made a timeline of that 445 trial: completion date, one-year mark, nothing. My notebook has more results than the registry right now.

For me the interesting part is which endpoints get reported first. Weight alone can travel fast. The fuller set often waits for a proper write-up. That’s just how these things surface.

I don’t need a polished paper. A conference poster would scratch the itch. Even a plain table with n and time points. Is that too much to ask?

Until the full data show up, I’m treating 28.7% as a headline and 24.2% as the firmer anchor. Not because one is bad, just because I can’t line them up yet.

I keep a note in my phone with the NCT number and the completion date, and I stop checking after 18 months — past that they usually surface at a conference or a press release first.

FDAAA says a year for applicable trials, but enforcement is basically a stiff email, so a 445-person trial sitting quiet for a year isn't weird. Did the completion date shift recently? That usually resets the clock.

Completed on CT.gov and completed in reality are two different verbs, apparently.

Honestly the 24.2% vs 28.7% thing is comparing two different rulers. Efficacy estimand strips out everyone who dropped out or stopped, so it flatters the number, and if the Phase 3 headline is a different estimand or a different week point they're not competing numbers at all.

What I'd actually want posted is the treatment-policy estimand, the one that includes everyone who quit. I track my own stuff the same way — my on-plan spreadsheet has me down 19 lb over 40 weeks, the honest one that counts vacation and the two months I stalled says 11. Both true, very different story.

One thing that helped me stop refreshing that page: I set a Google Scholar alert for the NCT number and a saved search on the sponsor's newsroom. Conference abstracts drop months before the actual posting and a 445-person trial rarely vanishes quietly, somebody presents it somewhere.

Also check whether completed means the whole trial or just primary completion — if an extension period is still running, the clock basically doesn't start until the last visit. I've waited on three like this, two eventually showed up as late-breaker posters, the third I gave up on.

My scale sat still for 19 days while my belt went down a notch, so I quit trusting one number.

I weigh Fridays only, same time, after bathroom, and measure my waist at the navel. Over 12 weeks the scale dropped 9 lbs but my waist shrank 3.5 inches, which was the opposite of what I expected.

Weekends used to wreck me; now I front-load protein at breakfast and walk 20 minutes after dinner. That combo did more for my head than any number on a screen.