Seven months in and my weight trendline disagrees with the scale

Your 0.55 lb/wk over 12 weeks is still ~29 lbs/year — not nothing. But I’m curious: did your waist trendline also flatten, or is it still dropping? Mine did the opposite.

Scale stalled for almost 5 weeks around month 6, but waist kept losing ~0.2 in/week, then the scale whooshed down 3 lbs in 4 days. I stopped trusting the 7-day and switched to a 14-day rolling average for weight, plus a monthly waist check. Also, how many steps/day now vs months 2–3?

My NEAT dropped when my appetite got quieter, and that alone killed my weekly trendline.

At 191 and lifting 4x, I’d stop expecting the old -1.3 pace. That early drop was partly water/glycogen and a bigger deficit. Now a 0.5–0.6 lb/wk trend with waist ticking down is classic recomp territory.

What’s your waist doing over the same 12 weeks, and are your main lifts holding or climbing? When my trendline stalled around 190, my waist dropped ~1.5 in over six weeks while the scale barely moved; I only caught it because I logged the tape same day/time.

Also check whether weekly calories or steps have drifted — at a lighter bodyweight, the same intake is a smaller deficit.

your data nerdery is my love language. One thing that helped me when my trendline flattened: I started tracking 4-week change instead of 12, plus a “chaos day” column.

With my two kids, my protein tanks on practice nights and that’s exactly when the snack drawer gets raided. Pre-portioned jerky and string cheese at the front kept it steadier.

What does your waist trend look like over those same 12 weeks—flat too, or still creeping down? If waist is still moving, I’d trust that over the daily scale noise.

What’s your waist doing across those same 12 weeks? My scale did the same slowdown around month 6, but my waist kept creeping down while the 7-day average looked flat.

For me, my steps had quietly dropped ~1,500/day because of school schedule chaos, and my snack drawer was all grab-and-go carbs. I started pre-portioning cheese sticks, turkey slices, and grapes on Sunday, and the trendline finally moved again. Might be worth comparing your step/protein trends to the scale.

At goal now, but when my loss rate dropped from ~1.2 to ~0.4, I had to stop comparing week 30 to week 10. I look at 8–12 week blocks, and I track waist as its own trendline instead of a weekly number.

If weight is flat but waist is down and your lifts are holding, that’s often recomposition, not a stall. Has your waist kept moving in a direction you like even when the scale hasn’t?

Percent body weight per week helped me stop comparing eras. -1.3 at 232 was ~0.56%/wk; -0.55 at 191 is ~0.29%/wk.

Still marching down, just a smaller denominator. I also switched to a 14-day trendline when the 7-day got twitchy—it smooths the noise and gives a clearer slope.

One concrete thing to check: did protein or steps quietly drift during those 12 weeks? If steps dropped by 1–2k or protein slid, that can explain a flatter line without anything being “wrong.” You’re tracking the right stuff—keep zooming out.