Week 72 trial data vs my slow week 28 response?

2026-08-17 8126 views 47 posts

Coming up on 28 weeks of tracking everything — weight, waist, labs. Down 11% from where the log started, waist down 4 inches, fasting glucose sitting at 104, A1c 5.9. But the last 6 weeks the scale has basically been parked.

I keep going back to NCT04184622 — 2539 people, Week 0-72, 5/10/15 mg arms. Averages hide slow responders, I get that.

So for anyone whose numbers flattened out somewhere around week 24-30: did it pick back up later without changing anything, or was the second half just slower overall? Trying to separate a normal plateau from "this is my response."

The part people forget is that around the six-month mark is when stalls tend to show up. Common surprise: one can run almost 8 weeks before it finally breaks, and even then it's slow. Nothing changed except more walking.

Same here. Waist and A1c were trending the right way even when weight stalled, and fasting glucose finally came in under 100 around month eight of tracking.

I’d be careful with that. Waist can shrink from less bloating or measuring at different times. I didn’t trust mine until it was 3+ inches down.

Fair, but my pants size changed before the scale. Hard to fake that.

The week 72 trial had 2539 people across placebo and 5/10/15, so that average is a lot of different curves bundled together. Slow responders often lose little early and then most of it between weeks 30-60. Week 28 isn't the final read. Did glucose change before weight for you?

That pattern seems pretty common, and it's a decent reminder that a flat scale doesn't mean nothing is happening.

I hate when people quote the average like it’s a personal forecast. The trial ran to week 72 for a reason.

Yeah, and week 28 is barely past the first trimester of the trial. Way too early to call it.

What are you tracking besides scale? I started measuring thighs and sleep, and both changed before the pounds moved.

My plateau was around week 24-30 too. I stayed consistent and it eventually moved, but slower than the first months. Teh whoosh never came, just a boring downward line.

Yeah, the frustration is real. Around 40 weeks of tracking is where a lot of people seem to land, and the first 20 felt dramatic. Weeks 24-34 were almost flat. The only things that changed were protein and daily steps. The scale started moving again about 1-2 lbs a month. Not huge, but the trend line is still down.

That 2539-person, 72-week design makes me think the second half matters a lot, especially for people who don't respond fast. Glucose numbers might be the better signal right now. Averages aren't promises, but watching a slow downward slope sure beats panicking at every flat week.

Week 26-34 was my dead zone.

The scale sat inside the same 2 lb window for almost nine weeks while my belt went from the 4th notch to the 6th and my resting heart rate dropped 5 bpm. Then it let go — 6 lbs in 11 days, all at once. Are you tracking anything besides the scale? That's the only reason I didn't throw mine out the window.

I stalled hard weeks 24-31 and it lined up almost exactly with a stretch where I was sleeping 5.5 hours and living on coffee. Nothing else changed — same food, same 8k steps.

When work calmed down I got back to 7.5-8 hours and dropped 3.4 lbs in the first 8 days, which honestly felt insulting after six weeks of white-knuckling.

The fail part: I tried to "fix" the stall by cutting to 1,200 calories, which just made me sleep worse and eat crackers standing at the counter at 11pm. Went back to normal portions, added a walk after dinner, prioritized sleep, and things moved again.

If I were you I'd look at what else changed in the last 6 weeks — sleep, stress, schedule, daylight. Mine lags that stuff by weeks.

Mild pushback: I think staring at trial curves messes with your head, because those are smoothed out of clinic visits every few weeks while you're weighing daily and seeing every 2 lb sodium swing. I spent weeks 25-35 convinced I was a non-responder.

Then I pulled 10 weeks of daily weights into a 7-day rolling average and I was actually down 2.4 lbs over that stretch — flat in week-to-week chunks, still moving overall. Boring, slow, moving.

So I'd compare month 4 to month 6 to now instead of week 28 to week 30. What does your 30-day trend look like against your starting point?

Weekends were my hidden stall. Friday 189, Monday 194 after a birthday party and takeout, back to 190 by Wednesday — and Monday's number is the one my brain kept.

When I started logging only Friday and Monday, my "seven-week plateau" turned out to be a net 3 lb drop with a 4 lb water pendulum sitting on top. The other tell was jeans: a pair from February finally zipped without the lay-down-on-the-bed maneuver around week 30, six weeks after the scale went flat.

Do your weekends run way saltier or boozier than your weekdays? That alone could be hiding your last month.

My stall was my Renpho lying about body fat—waist kept dropping 2in while scale froze at week 27, so trut the tape.

Sleep was mine: 5hrs for 3 weeks, cortisol spike, scale up 2lb then dropped 5 after a vacation.

Week 28 is exactly when my food noise came back quet enough to graze. Logged everything for 10 days, found 300 cal/day sneaking in.

Contrarian take: my second half was actually faster, but only after I stopped weighing daily and let the 4-week trend line do the talking.

My scale sat still 7 weeks while my belt went in another notch. Bodies are weird. Tape beats scale when things stall.