My spreadsheet can't separate peptide hype from the GLP-1 slope

2026-10-06 21:42

I keep getting pulled into IGF-1 LR3 vs HGH threads because the arguments sound tidy, but my own data is messier. I'm 14 months on a GLP-1, down 81.4 lb from my highest logged morning.

My last 19 weekly averages give a slope of -0.36 lb/week, and waist is down 4.25 inches since February. Protein is 135-150 g, steps average 8,100, two full-body sessions.

The contrarian part of me says: if I add another variable now, I can't credit it. The spreadsheet would just have a new column and worse attribution.

I'm not anti-peptide; I'm anti-uninterpretable data.

Has anyone actually tracked IGF-1 LR3 or HGH alongside GLP-1 stuff and seen a change that wasn't explainable by appetite, training, or sleep? Or is it mostly forum noise?

2026-10-08 09:31

man the tidy peptide threads always ignore the boring part: your waist is still moving even when the scale slope flattens. 19 weekly avgs is decent but one sodium/carb refeed can torque -0.36. i’d run a 28-day rolling slope and plot it next to monthly waist, not weekly.

when i swapped soda for zero/ sparkling water, scale stalled like 10 days then caught up; waist was the honest signal. what happens if you regress waist on time instead of weight? if that line is still down, peptide noise is just noise for your spreadsheet. also 8.1k steps + 2 lifts 14 months in is no joke.

2026-10-08 20:27

81.4 lb and 4.25 inches is huge — congrats. One thing that helped me ignore the tidy peptide threads was adding a 4-week rolling waist average and a simple “energy/strength 1–5” column beside my weekly weigh-ins.

My scale slope went flat for almost a month while waist and gym loads still improved, then weight caught up. If you’re already at 135–150 g protein and 8k steps, what do your sleep and stress look like during those flat weeks? That’s usually where my water retention hides.

2026-10-20 09:17

Contrarian take: a 19-week slope averages two different regimes. I split mine into rolling 8-week windows and got -0.61 then -0.29 lb/wk on identical protein and steps — so any "variable" I'd added at week 10 would've looked causal.

I also log waist weekly and it lags the scale by ~3 weeks, meaning tape keeps moving after weight flattens and whatever I added gets the credit. What's your slope on just weeks 12-19? That's the one I'd trust.